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Profiles of thermodynamic parameters indicate a significant dip in the mixed layer heights near the eye of the storm due to the formation of deep convective precipitating clouds. Surface-layer parameters within the MABL exhibit large diurnal variability during the passage of the storm compared with the normal days. Equivalent day analysis on the surface-layer turbulent fluxes over these locations reveals a substantial rise in the magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes during the passage of the storm. Time-series meteograms of the surface-layer and upper-air meteorological parameters are examined for six distinct locations on the trajectory of OCKHI. Here, we investigate the impact of a very severe cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ on the MABL parameters over the Arabian Sea by using a regional numerical weather prediction model, namely Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO). Another objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of new model resolution (2.8km) and answer the question “Would the forecast be better if the 2.8km COSMO model was available during the tropical cyclone Phet?”Īlthough considerable progress has been made in improving the early predictability of the tropical cyclones, our knowledge of the vertical structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over a cyclone-affected ocean remains limited. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of NWP model forecasts as guidance for the operational warning system during Phet. Recently, DGMAN upgraded its computational resources and a high resolution model (2.8km) is run in research mode. The non-hydrostatic COSMO model is run operationally at 7km. HRM model is run at 14 and 7km resolution. Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) is running two different physical core (Hydrostatic and non-Hydrostatic) models in several model resolutions.
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Operational forecasters used the output of the NWP models to issue the timely warning during Phet.
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“This is more or less the track pursued by tropical cyclone Gonu last year,'' says ECMWF.To large extend, operational forecasters depend on the NWP guidance plus their experience during severe weather events and tropical cyclone Phet was not an exception. The circulation is shown to move in a west-northwest direction, away from the Indian coast, during the two days from May 27 for which forecasts are available. The ECMWF forecasts say that the rogue circulation spin up in the west-central Arabian Sea about the same time as the westerly winds are predicted to accelerate in the run-up to monsoon. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that unlike tropical cyclone Gonu, the intensity of this impending storm would be low. The only redeeming feature, according to ECMWF, would be that this time the storm would be comparatively at a reduced strength. It further states that the timing of the ‘cyclogenesis' (birth of a cyclone) and the path for onward movement would resemble those of tropical Cyclone Gonu, which killed 48 people when it struck Oman on June 6 last year. The forecast states that “the system is forecast to develop in the west central Arabian Sea and is expected to make a landfall over the Yemen/Oman coast around May 29.'' He added that the message from the forecast was that such a development might happen, but one must wait and see what happens in the next forecasts, a task, he stressed, was with the National Meteorological Services. He also clarified that ECMWF do not forecast a cyclone to hit the Gulf states, although "there clearly is still some potential for this to happen." “This not so prominent in Tuesday's forecast,'' he added. Kloeppel further added that the forecast last Monday (May 19) showed a system developing and hitting Oman on 28 May. However, when contacted in London, Manfred Kloeppel, Assistant to Director, ECMWF, said: “We do not issue any warnings ourselves to any states in the world but make our products available in particular to our Member and Co-operating States.'' He, however, did not elaborate.Īccording to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the onset phase of this year's monsoon could feature a cyclone in the west Arabian Sea. “We are in preparedness,'' Badr Al Rumhi of DGMAN told Gulf News on Tuesday. This time the forecast of landfall of the cyclone is on May 29 around Oman/Yemen coast.Ī senior official at the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) confirmed that they have initial reports about the possibility of a storm. Muscat: Less than a year after Cyclone Gonu devastated the coast of Oman, a UK-based international weather bureau has predicted that another tropical storm could hit Oman and Yemen at the end of May.